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Analyst: EA Investors "Betting Against" The Old Republic

While virtually everyone reading Ask A Jedi probably agrees that Star Wars™: The Old Republic™ is going to be the game that finally walks on water, it seems that some analysts are not as rosy with their outlook on the prospects for the title.

Gamasutra’s Leigh Alexander provided some perspective on Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey, and the rationale behind his cautionary tone:

We believe many investors are betting against SWTOR achieving market success, provided the company’s (Warhammer Online from Mythic) and industry’s track record at releasing successful new MMOs.

Essentially, Hickey is factoring in things about EA’s history of releasing massively-multiplayer games, citing both Warhammer and All Points Bulletin (each development studio owned by EA,) in rendering his analysis. Given just those factors, it would be easy to agree with him. But there’s more to it than that – BioWare is involved, for instance.

So what’s our take?

Although contrary to the unbiased position they should be projecting, analysts usually have an agenda. And that agenda usually revolves around making money or gaining notoriety. Everything that’s mentioned in the writeup is merely an opinion and not a fact, nor a rendition of the future. Heck, he’s not even talking about the game itself… just using data, some precedent and speculation to form an opinion of the potential fiscal performance.

That said, it’s no secret that a gargantuan effort (and pocketbook) is required to develop, produce, launch and support a triple-A MMO such as The Old Republic™. It’s a risk that only a very finite number of publishers or studios can undertake. There’s no doubt that BioWare faces challenges.

Even with Star Wars™ as the intellectual property license, there’s no guarantee of blockbuster success. See Lord of The Rings Online™ and the recent shift to a free-to-play model for a recent similar example.

But luckily, we’re not investors. We’re gamers. We’re seeing all of the right things that BioWare and LucasArts are doing with The Old Republic™, and I think as gamers, that’s all we should be focused on. Let the business take care of itself, one way or another.

The bottom line is there’s no reason to let one analyst’s opinion of the potential success or failure of the game dampen your enthusiasm for it.

via Gamasutra

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